Several rounds of storms upcoming…

Three rounds of strong to potentially severe storms are expected across parts of Middle Tennessee over the next 5 days, along with the risk for more heavy rain and possible flooding.

 

ROUND #1: Tonight/Thursday morning 11pm-10am

– Low threat of damaging winds

– Main risk area far west & south Middle Tennessee

QLCS storms should be winding down as they reach our area well past midnight.  Meager instability, however, combined with strong low level shear will present a shot at a rogue QLCS tornado.  These tornadoes will be the quick spin-up type and we won’t have a lot of lead time on these.  Be sure to have some sort of wake-me-up device handy.

 

ROUND #2: Friday evening/Friday night 6pm-1am

– Damaging winds, large hail, a couple tornadoes all possible

– Heavy rainfall and localized flooding also possible

– Main risk area northwest Middle Tennessee

Atmosphere will become very favorable for strong/severe storms Friday.  A warm front is poised to lift northward of us early Friday putting much of the midstate in a very unstable warm sector.  Dew points roaming through the 60s and 2500j/kg MLCAPE (instability) will provide ample fuel for these storms.  However, due to a lack of a trigger mechanism and a weak cap, convective development won’t happen until the afternoon.  PWATS (atmospheric moisture content) will be 1.5 to 1.6, meaning any substantial storm will provide torrential downpours.  Given our rains over the weekend, these additional rains could promote flooding.  This will need to be watched.

 

ROUND #3:  Sunday/Sunday night

– Damaging winds, large hail, a couple tornadoes all possible

– More heavy rainfall and flash flooding also possible

– Main risk area all of Middle Tennessee

Sunday offers a shot at some severe storms, but the chances are much more limited than Friday.  PWATs will still be high, so torrential downpours and additional flooding is a possibility.

QPC forecast

(H/T to OHX WCM Krissy Hurley and this morning’s discussion authored by Sam Shamburger)

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