Tomorrow’s storm chances

Haven’t done a blog post in a while, mainly due to work and inactive weather, but I feel it’s warranted today.  I’m getting grossly concerned about what’s modeled to happen tomorrow.  Notice the term “modeled”.  We don’t exactly know what’s going to happen, but millions of bytes of computer data have spent the better part of a week painting a very ominous picture.  Here’s what we do know:

  • it’s unseasonably warm.  Highs tomorrow should breach 70F in spots by midafternoon.
  • dew points are going to abnormally high for this time of year.  Mid 60F dew points could reach as far north as the Ohio River.  That’s highly enriched “storm fuel” that should be in relative abundance.
  • the approaching system is of the kind we’d see in the spring, not winter.  The dynamics at play would be dangerous during March/April.  To see them this late into the calendar is downright terrifying.

The Storm Prediction Center has put most of Mid TN in an ENHANCED category (3 out of 5).  If this doesn’t raise eyebrows, you need to check your pulse.

day2otlk_0700

We know we’re going to have the four ingredients one needs for strong/severe thunderstorms to develop: heat, moisture, instability, wind shear.  Some of these we’ll have in abundance, others will become prominent as the afternoon wears on Wednesday.  There are underlying factors that are needed for supercells to develop.  These factors, again, will become prominent as the afternoon draws on Wednesday.  In their discussion, the folks at the SPC mention supercells and the possibilities of “significant tornadoes” in the above-pictured risk areas.  Further, our local National Weather Service office is becoming increasingly concerned about the supercell possibilities, as well.

My job here is not to scare you, but to provide you with the most up-to-date, localized weather information I can.  Bottom line is this…there is a distinct possibility of very dangerous, organized weather beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting well into the night.  Straight-line winds are the primary danger, but given the dynamics at play, tornadoes – some significant and violent – are possible across the SPC-defined risk areas.  Take the time NOW to plan accordingly.  Clean out your most interior, first-floor closet/bathroom.  Pack a “go bag”, that includes the most basic essentials in case you have to leave your home or safe place.  Please pay attention to your favorite local media source.  While we like the attention, we SHOULD NOT be your local media source.  We will update as conditions warrant.