Snow for the Weekend?

Greetings, from the cloud capital of the world…Murfreesboro, TN.  A stretch?  Yeah it is, but here lately it seems as if the only weather worth mentioning is the cloud cover.  Don’t worry though…

jr

 

The weather community has been watching a storm system progged to exit the northern Gulf of Mexico for a few days now.  You snowbirds in Tennessee know that any snow-making weather system worth its weight in road salt exits the Gulf and heads northeast towards the southern Applachians, as this storm system is progged to do.  But we have a problem…

problem

 

Most – if not all – of the medium and long range model data used for making a forecast are carrying different solutions.  The GFS, affectionately called the GooFuS across weather circles, hints at a more northerly route for the storm system while the other major model, the ECWMF – European – model spit out a fantastically winterized solution yesterday.  Average depths on the clown maps were nearly 8″.

not happening

 

Right on cue, today’s European model, more specifically the afternoon run, was much tamer in regards to a possible solution.  It gave us a moderately snowy solution with 2-4″ accumulations throughout the area.  Granted, that number sounds much more reasonable but several system factors are still considerably different across most model platforms, so the above referenced model solution, again, probably will not happen.

debbie downer

However, not all is lost.  There are still similarities among some of the more important factors when it comes to Tennessee snowfall and we’re going to see which model suite picks the correct solution.  Climatology argues against measurable December snowfall, but it has happened.  The current stagnated pattern we’re in looks to make a wholesale change after Christmas and as the immortal Jim Ross mentioned above, business will DEFINITELY pick up after the first of the year.

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