Update on the storm chances – October 13-14, 2014

Just concluded a conference call with the NWS concerning our impending storm event.  Here’s the highlights:

– Squall line currently just E of Little Rock, AR.  Progress has been more rapid than previous model data has indicated, but it’s expected to slow down the closer it gets.  Current ETA for us is between 7p and 1a.

– All modes of severe weather are possible: hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

– This will also be a heavy rain event, with most folks seeing an additional 1-3″ of rain.  Some could conceivably see 4″ of rain after its all said and done with.

– The discrete supercell chance, while not zero, is small.  NWS more concerned with the flooding potential than a discrete supercell outbreak.

– Like to remind everyone that this will in all likelihood be a nocturnal event and would like to emphasize the importance to be aware of what’s going on around you.  It will be dark, and given the amount of wind shear energy that will be present, some nocturnal tornadoes are expected.

– A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at 7p tonight, lasting through 1p Tuesday afternoon.  I do expect this watch to get upgraded to warnings for some counties across the midstate later on tonight.

– Keep up to date with your favorite local media outlets for changing weather conditions.

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