WIll it snow and how much?

We’ve been bypassed so many times here lately, with snow either to our north, to our west, to our east, and most recently to our south.  A report from Guntersville, AL said they received 6″ this morning.  6″??  Yeah, it chaps my rear end, too. 

Here’s the latest advisories/warnings:

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Rurherford Co is included in a Winter Weather Advisory.  Effects covered within this advisory include a chance of 1-3″ of snow accumulation.  There’s a distinct possibility that there could be a bit more than that, but there’s also the same possibility that there could be less than that.  Details below from our recently completed conference call with NWS Nashville:

– This forecast is arguably the hardest winter weather forecast these guys have seen in 5 or 6 years.

– Even at this hour (within 24 hours of an event), there are still model guidance diagreements.  Some models show little to no snow, while others show moderate to heavy snow.

– Precip will begin across N AL and overspread northward, initially starting out as maybe some sleet, but a quick transition to snow is expected.  

– There is a fairly high confidence that the greatest swath of heavier snow will be from a Pulaski to Lawrenceburg to Manchester line and southward, leaving those of us in Rutherford Co high and dry (figure of speech…)

– Biggest question is how far north does the snow get.  The air is really dry, not only at the surface, but higher up in the atmosphere.  The higher one goes, the “deeper” the dryness gets.  It’s going to take a while before the atmosphere moistens up enough to allow snow to fall.  Right now, the drier air is along and north of I-40, towards the Kentucky border.  We’re so close to being dry as well, but better positioned geographically to take better advantage of heavier precip rates.

– There will be a sharp gradient to snowfall totals, and even a single jaunt of 50-75 miles will have huge implications on amounts around the area.  

– Expect snow to arrive between 8-10am, with the heaviest snowfall to happen tomorrow afternoon.  I’ve already fielded questions about school closings/delays, and I just don’t have that information right now.  Another conference call is scheduled for 4:30am, and I’m sure that will be a major topic for discussion.

– Message to you #tspotters…the NWS has specifically asked that you help us tomorrow.  if you can tweet pics to us and tell us what you’re seeing, that will be fantastic.  You guys are a valuable resource to the weather community and our appreciation knows no bounds.

– Total accumulations for tomorrow, according to the NWS, will be 1-3″.  Some of you will see much less than that, but some could see a bit more.  Driving conditions will understandably go downhill once snowfall begins in earnest, and travel will be hazardous.

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