We just concluded a conference call with the National Weather Service and here are the highlights:
– Primary mode appears to be a squall line (ETA 8pm-2am) with greatest severe potential along and W of I-65
– Damaging winds will be the primary threat…maybe even a widespread damaging wind event E of I-65.
– Greatest chance of supercellular activity will be across areas S and W of BNA where greater instability resides.
– Flooding possible area-wide. All storms will be torrential rain producers and if training sets up, areas will pile up rainfall quickly.
– Wind Advisory will be issued today for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will gust up to 35mph tonight and could reach 40-50mph gusts tomorrow. The felling of trees looks to be a distinct possibility.
– Greatest tornado chance (other than those associated with the supercell threat) looks to be with the squall line itself.
This system does not look like a significant – or even proficient – tornado producer, but take the time now to make an emergency plan. These cool-weather storm systems sometimes over perform, so it would be prudent to cover all your bases while you have time.