Storm Update

OK, things just got real. 

Storm Prediction Center has added us to their MODERATE risk area.  Our severe weather potential, while it has always been present, has risen sharply given the latest model data.  The main threat looks to be damaging winds, but the potential for tornadoes has increased.  We’re not looking for a tornado outbreak – at least in our geographical area, but conditions are such that any storm that arrives will carry with it a chance to produce a tornado.  Take the time now to fashion an emergency plan and know what you’re going to do in the event a tornado warning is issued for your area.

Now some maps…

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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The western half of the county has been included in the SPC’s “Significant Tornado Risk” area.  While this DOES NOT mean a significant tornado is expected, it only means that atmospheric parameters are such that a significant tornado is POSSIBLE.  

Here’s a close up of both risk categories from the SPC…

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I urge everyone that reads this to monitor weather trends throughout the day.  Find yourself a reliable media source that you can readily listen to, then find another as a backup.  Heed any and all warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service today.

Update on our storm chances this weekend…

We just concluded a conference call with the National Weather Service and here are the highlights:

– Primary mode appears to be a squall line (ETA 8pm-2am) with greatest severe potential along and W of I-65

– Damaging winds will be the primary threat…maybe even a widespread damaging wind event E of I-65.

– Greatest chance of supercellular activity will be across areas S and W of BNA where greater instability resides.

– Flooding possible area-wide.  All storms will be torrential rain producers and if training sets up, areas will pile up rainfall quickly.

– Wind Advisory will be issued today for tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Winds will gust up to 35mph tonight and could reach 40-50mph gusts tomorrow.  The felling of trees looks to be a distinct possibility.

– Greatest tornado chance (other than those associated with the supercell threat) looks to be with the squall line itself.

This system does not look like a significant – or even proficient – tornado producer, but take the time now to make an emergency plan.  These cool-weather storm systems sometimes over perform, so it would be prudent to cover all your bases while you have time.