It’s been a while since my last blog post. With two kids, work, and school, things have been a bit chaotic, but honestly, I just haven’t made a concerted effort into trying to find the time to talk about the weather. Thankfully, work and school have calmed down dramatically, and perhaps now I’ll be afforded the opportunity into discussing that which affects us all.
Trick-or-Treat, Mother Nature Style
Not to be confused with this guy…
…but we could be doing some serious hop-stepping of our own come Halloween. Model guidance has picked up on a rather robust storm system that could give us some active weather on or around Halloween. The main long-range models we turn to for forecasting — the European and the GFS models — are split on timing, but both depict scenarios that could give us fits.
The GFS brings a strong cold front through our area early Halloween morning. If this scenario came to fruition, all rain should be gone in time for the kids to go door-to-door.
The European model — or Euro — puts the cold front through here well after the kiddos have gone to bed (unless they’re on a sugar high).
I need to mention that the timing of these models is still fluid. Each subsequent model run lately has been different from it’s predecessor, so take this with a grain of salt. Until the models “lock on” to a solution, all we can do is make an (un)educated guess about possible scenarios. What can we take away from this? Not much. What do we know? At this point, not much. What we DO know is that a storm system will affect someone east of the Rockies on or around Halloween. Once weather models calm down, we’ll know more.