It’s exactly what we’ve all feared…it looks as if Halloween festivities will be threatened by Mother Nature. Let’s jump right into it. The SPC has highlighted a portion of Middle Tennessee – that currently DOES NOT include Rutherford Co – for the threat of some strong/severe storms on Thursday:
As for timing, both medium-range models bring a cold front through the area during the late afternoon/early evening. It’s difficult to ascertain the severity of the storms at this juncture, but the SPC has offered up it’s opinion and it’s not particularly comforting:
A SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS AN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR…CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE /OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY…ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. GIVEN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Do I think we’re going to have an all-out tornado-fest? Absolutely not, but given some of the certain atmospheric parameters the models are showing, there is a possibility of a tornado or two. These parameters will undoubtedly ebb and flow up until the frontal passage, and the threat could very well be minimized. Only time will tell, however.
So, it appears as though we’re going to see rain on Halloween, and we have a threat for thunderstorms as well. We’re still 3 1/2 days away and there’s still time for the models to straighten up and take the rain somewhere else. Perhaps if we threaten them with bodily harm?
More to come as more model data becomes available.