Halloween Storm Update

It’s exactly what we’ve all feared…it looks as if Halloween festivities will be threatened by Mother Nature.  Let’s jump right into it.  The SPC has highlighted a portion of Middle Tennessee – that currently DOES NOT include Rutherford Co – for the threat of some strong/severe storms on Thursday:

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As for timing, both medium-range models bring a cold front through the area during the late afternoon/early evening.  It’s difficult to ascertain the severity of the storms at this juncture, but the SPC has offered up it’s opinion and it’s not particularly comforting:

A SEVERE RISK REMAINS APPARENT ESPECIALLY ON DAY 4/THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EASTWARD-ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. WHILE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS AN UNCERTAINTY FACTOR…CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE /OR CERTAIN/ COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS/TN VALLEY…ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. GIVEN A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Do I think we’re going to have an all-out tornado-fest?  Absolutely not, but given some of the certain atmospheric parameters the models are showing, there is a possibility of a tornado or two.  These parameters will undoubtedly ebb and flow up until the frontal passage, and the threat could very well be minimized.  Only time will tell, however.

So, it appears as though we’re going to see rain on Halloween, and we have a threat for thunderstorms as well.  We’re still 3 1/2 days away and there’s still time for the models to straighten up and take the rain somewhere else.  Perhaps if we threaten them with bodily harm?

More to come as more model data becomes available.

Trick-or-Treat, Mother Nature Style

Hello Tweeps!

It’s been a while since my last blog post.  With two kids, work, and school, things have been a bit chaotic, but honestly, I just haven’t made a concerted effort into trying to find the time to talk about the weather.  Thankfully, work and school have calmed down dramatically, and perhaps now I’ll be afforded the opportunity into discussing that which affects us all.

Trick-or-Treat, Mother Nature Style

Not to be confused with this guy…

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…but we could be doing some serious hop-stepping of our own come Halloween.  Model guidance has picked up on a rather robust storm system that could give us some active weather on or around Halloween.  The main long-range models we turn to for forecasting — the European and the GFS models — are split on timing, but both depict scenarios that could give us fits.

The GFS brings a strong cold front through our area early Halloween morning.  If this scenario came to fruition, all rain should be gone in time for the kids to go door-to-door.

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The European model — or Euro — puts the cold front through here well after the kiddos have gone to bed (unless they’re on a sugar high).

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I need to mention that the timing of these models is still fluid.  Each subsequent model run lately has been different from it’s predecessor, so take this with a grain of salt.  Until the models “lock on” to a solution, all we can do is make an (un)educated guess about possible scenarios.  What can we take away from this?  Not much.  What do we know?  At this point, not much.  What we DO know is that a storm system will affect someone east of the Rockies on or around Halloween.  Once weather models calm down, we’ll know more.