It’s Gon’ Rain.

Just finished up a conference call with the NWS, and the focus of the conversation revolved around the threat for heavy rain — even flooding rains — over the next few days.  Here’s the highlights:

– Expect storms to increase in coverage over the next 24-36 hours

– The rain will be locally heavy.  Current model data puts the heaviest axis of rain over I-65, but we’re not going to be surprised if this axis shifts E or W 50-75 miles

-The upcoming wx pattern is locked in, and is very anomalous considering we’re entering July

-The upcoming system is very similar to a tropical system: plenty of tropical moisture and the wind field will be quite impressive across the upper levels of the atmosphere

– Severe wx cannot be ruled out, given the tropical nature of the system.  Parameters are such that an isolated tornado will be possible with any strong storm

– The current Flood Watch that is in effect across our neighbors to the E will more than likely be changed (i.e. move W) as more model data gets received

– The severe threat this weekend is slightly less than our risk over the next 24-48 hours

– We do expect the surface winds to stay below Wind Advisory criteria

– Expect rain totals to vary widely between 2-5 inches over the next 48 hours.  These amounts are HIGHLY dependent upon where the main axis of heavy rain aligns itself.

Any and all firework shows planned for tonight/tomorrow are very much up in the air.  We’ll know more as the day progresses.