Just finished up a conference call with the NWS, and the focus of the conversation revolved around the threat for heavy rain — even flooding rains — over the next few days. Here’s the highlights:
– Expect storms to increase in coverage over the next 24-36 hours
– The rain will be locally heavy. Current model data puts the heaviest axis of rain over I-65, but we’re not going to be surprised if this axis shifts E or W 50-75 miles
-The upcoming wx pattern is locked in, and is very anomalous considering we’re entering July
-The upcoming system is very similar to a tropical system: plenty of tropical moisture and the wind field will be quite impressive across the upper levels of the atmosphere
– Severe wx cannot be ruled out, given the tropical nature of the system. Parameters are such that an isolated tornado will be possible with any strong storm
– The current Flood Watch that is in effect across our neighbors to the E will more than likely be changed (i.e. move W) as more model data gets received
– The severe threat this weekend is slightly less than our risk over the next 24-48 hours
– We do expect the surface winds to stay below Wind Advisory criteria
– Expect rain totals to vary widely between 2-5 inches over the next 48 hours. These amounts are HIGHLY dependent upon where the main axis of heavy rain aligns itself.
Any and all firework shows planned for tonight/tomorrow are very much up in the air. We’ll know more as the day progresses.