The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of Mid TN in a SLIGHT risk for late Wednesday (Day 3):
The risk area stops just west of I-65, but we fully expect to see it shift eastward as we get closer to midweek. Here’s an excerpt from the SPC’s Day 4-8 Convective Outlook discussion:
SLIGHT-RISK EQUIVALENT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST INTO D4 AND PERHAPS EARLY D5 MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALONG WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT RENDER SEVERE PROBABILITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT ATTM.
There remains some weather model discrepancies concerning the arrival of the weather system. Some data suggests a Wednesday afternoon arrival, while some suggest a Thursday afternoon arrival. The NWS suggests a possible ETA of Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This nocturnal arrival helps to further lessen the significant tornado threat, but does little to lessen the OVERALL tornado threat. As with any severe weather event, there’s an inherent chance of a tornado, and this is just the case. There appears to be enough “spin” in the atmosphere that any mature storm cell could begin to rotate. Take the time now to replace your weather radio batteries, ensure you have multiple modes of media at your disposal that can retrieve pertinent weather information, and ensure a safe and workable disaster plan.